The next big thing

Will GM be able to maintain its zero-emission goals when sales numbers decline and the country's incoming president mocks electric cars? And why hasn't Toyota entered the electric car market with greater weight?

 

Da Mary T. Barra recently presented GM's annual report, it emerged that sales of electric cars have declined and that GM has chosen to increase its investment in hybrid cars. The GM boss stressed that the company's goal of zero emissions still stands. Nevertheless, the press has subsequently asked whether GM is in the process of reconsidering its investment in electric cars, due to lower demand. In social media, GM is accused of listening more to the politicians than to its own customers, although American politicians are unlikely to fuss about electric cars. Everything indicates that the next president of the United States will be Donald Trump - a self-proclaimed opponent of electric cars.
 

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We're taking action in the fight against climate change by planning to make our global products and operations carbon neutral by 2040 and eliminating tailpipe emissions from our new US light duty vehicles by 2035. (GM's climate goal)

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GM's new electric car platform vice got off to an inauspicious start last year with delays followed by nationwide strikes. Barra said that sales of electric vehicles have slowed. Even if other electric car manufacturers experience the same, GM must see itself overtaken by foreign electric car manufacturers for the last quarter of 2023. The company's results for 2023 were nevertheless good - far better than expectations - thanks to the sale of the large pickups with thermal engines (source: NBC).

 

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Several American websites predict that GM will reduce its production of electric cars in favor of gasoline and hybrid cars.

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GM is not just anyone in the American auto industry. It is about capital, jobs, politics, social responsibility, profit and risk. No one knows how the technology will develop. Responsible car manufacturers should have more legs to stand on. Ruling out electric cars can be as big a risk as going "all in". Toyota's chairman, Aiko Toyoda, has stated that he believes electric cars are unlikely to exceed 30% of the global car fleet. Toyota has invested heavily in developing alternative powertrains, primarily hybrid technology. They are also one of the few car manufacturers that can deliver hydrogen cars. The company is Japan's leading car manufacturer - a "locomotive" - ​​with partnership and ownership interests in Subaru, Mazda and Daihatsu, among others. Nor have any of these car manufacturers distinguished themselves to any significant extent as electric car manufacturers.
 

 
The fact that two of the world's largest car groups have not thrown themselves wholeheartedly into the electric car race could have major consequences if developments in battery technology were to make major progress. If "the next big thing" provides major improvements in range and charging times, we can see a "game changer" in the car industry, where car manufacturers such as GM and Toyota do not have time to adapt - so that new players from China hijack the customers. Nobody knows what is going to be "the next big thing", It may as well be based on fuel cells as battery technology.
 
Without political facilitation and financial support for consumers, electric cars would only be an offer for the wealthiest in society. We take it for granted that the politicians steer the development towards zero emissions, but it doesn't have to be that way. The likely future president of the United States, Donald Trump, has expressed that he hates electric cars. Whatever he may think, in the short term GM stands to gain more from increasing production of large pickup trucks with thermal engines than from developing zero-emission vehicles. That would be unwise in the long run. Nevertheless, Trump can reap political gains from harping on electric cars. By claiming that real Americans don't want electric cars, or anything like that, he can influence his own supporters - about half the US. It can also influence reactionary political leaders in other countries to give the thumbs down to measures that reduce emissions and financial support for the purchase and use of electric cars.

 

 
Aiko Toyoda probably knows the global car market better than most. If Toyota's management had agreed to it, they could have built the world's best electric cars that most people could afford to buy. One of Toyoda's arguments is that 1 billion people on the planet live without fixed power. That is one of the reasons why the share of electric cars in the world is unlikely to exceed 30%. There are several obstacles that need to be overcome.
 
Here are some of them:
 
Charging in the million cities
In Naples in 2018, there were as many as 2,35 million cars – most parked on the street. How should these cars be charged? If each car is to be charged once a week, 330 cars will need charging every day. Where should they stand? In another European million-dollar city, Barcelona, ​​000% of the city's area was filled up by cars in 60 (Catalan News). In cities of millions, such as these, the amount of traffic is already at breaking point. Where should the cars drive to charge?
 
Prices
Electric cars are more expensive than equivalent cars with thermal engines. In rich countries, the authorities can facilitate financial support schemes. Poor countries can hardly do that. If electric cars are to replace the car fleet globally, they should not cost more to produce than thermal cars.
 
Small cars
Currently, there are few electric cars in the small car segment with acceptable battery capacity. Partly because the batteries are too heavy for small cars and partly because the prices will make them too expensive. We need a better offer of electric cars in the A and B classes.
 
Dependence on China
China belongs to what we in the West call the "axis of evil" - which supports authoritarian and cynical regimes. China supplies batteries to many European car manufacturers. In an overview from Finnish Cleanfi Oy, 2021, for example, all electric cars from Daimler AG were equipped with batteries from China. Models from BMW, Citroen, Opel and Peugeot also had their batteries delivered from China. Europe should be able to produce batteries itself with its own raw materials.
 
Ethical values
Many claim that the production of batteries for electric cars leads to exploitation of minerals, that the work is harmful to the environment and that workers are exploited - including child labour. Raw materials, such as cobalt, are mined in developing countries. We need batteries that are built on raw materials where the entire value chain can be followed.
 
preparedness
Military vehicles require diesel or "multifuel". In the event of mobilization, the state can seize civilian vehicles. The fact that there are civilian vehicles that run on diesel is an important part of our preparedness. Imagine being called to war as a truck driver to be handed an electric truck 🙂
 

Analogy to Norwegian DAB investment

I hope that electric cars do not fall into the same category as the Norwegian DAB initiative. Former head of broadcasting Thor Gjermund Eriksen convinced the politicians that DAB was the future solution for radio broadcasting. Norway became the first and last country in the world to go "all in" for DAB. Norwegian households were encouraged to buy expensive Pinelli DAB radios, which turned out to be highly flammable. A short time later, "the next big thing" came in the form of 4G. By then, DAB was technically passé.

 

See

Forbes: GM does a U-Turn
My American Dream