Some vintage cars become cult cars, while others end up as scruffy, old cars. I speculate which 20-year-old cars might become valuable as future vintage cars.
Ordinary cars that became valuable
Think back to the mid-80s. What would you give for a faded 20 year old Volkswagen Transporter, Volvo Amazon or Citroen DS? Not to mention exclusive cars like the Porsche 356 and Mercedes-Benz Pagode? Some cars have gained cult status and are sold for staggering sums after 40 years, while others are "nice old cars" where you can hardly expect to recoup the costs of refurbishment, even.
20 years
After 20 years, most cars will have reached their lowest value, regardless of their condition - even cars in a high price range. They are unlikely to become less exclusive over the years, but which car models from 2004 will be most in demand over the next 20 years? 2004 generally does not seem like a good year for future classics.
Import unprofitable
Cars that are older than 20 years can be brought into Norway without a one-off tax. The only thing you need to pay is 25% VAT and a wreck deposit. The prices of Norwegian cars are roughly at the same level as in Europe. Even if they were bought with one-off tax, there is little or nothing left of it at today's prices. That man vile mark, is whether you have to pay Norwegian VAT without having VAT deducted from the seller's country. For cheap cars, it makes little difference - but for exclusive cars, foreign cars will then be more expensive than Norwegian ones. The advantage of searching for cars abroad is that the selection is larger, especially for cars with low km.
The news in 2004
The following models were introduced in autumn 2004 as 2005 models: Volkswagen Golf 5, Audi A4 B7, Porsche 911 997, Chevrolet Corvette C6, Ford Mustang 5 and Ferrari F430. From the second half of 2024, the cars will meet the requirements for exemption from one-off tax, but the selection is limited and early cars can, as is known, be infected with childhood diseases. This applies, among other things, to previous versions of the Porsche 911 997 and Chevrolet Corvette C6. Of the new models that were produced as model year 2004, we find the Aston Martin DB9 and the Ferrari 612 Scaglietti. These are self-written classics.
These can become classics
English cars
You don't have to be psychic to see that cars like Aston Martin and Morgan become classics. The Aston Martin DB9 represents the brand's new line. The model is a direct successor to the DB7, but it is said that Aston Martin chose to call it the DB9 because it was at least two generations after the DB7. The MG TF was based on the MGF - and was a fairly affordable car in 2004 (NOK 314). It was MG Rover Group first model after the brand was sold from BMW. I think it has the potential to become a classic because it is the last MG before the brand was sold to China.
Italian cars
There are several Ferrari 612 Scagliettis from 2004 for sale. It was the first year the model was produced and appears today as a sure classic. Production of the Ferrari F430 began in the fall of 2004, but I have not found any of the very first cars for sale. The predecessor Ferrari 360, on the other hand, is well represented at the car exchanges. The Lamborghini Gallardo was launched as the new small Lamborghini in 2003, and is a clear classic in this company.
The affordable ones
The Honda S2000 looks rather anonymous, but represents a possibly extinct branch of the Honda group. A well-built and smooth-driving 2-seater open sports car from the world's best engine builder is worth taking care of. The classic stamp is somewhat uncertain. All the Z models from Nissan are – or will become – classics. The 350 Z belongs to a modern line of the Z series which means that it will stay young for a long time. All Saabs will be able to become future classics, including the GM Vectra-based Saab 9-3. However, I think the 9-3 sedan and station wagon are too commonplace to interest car enthusiasts. The cabriolet version evokes good Saab memories for many, and stands out in traffic.
Worthy of preservation?
Almost classics
Of cars from 2004, two Germans can stand out as classics, namely the Audi S4/RS4 and the BMW 6-series E63. In autumn 2004, the Audi A4 B6 was replaced by the B7 with a monoframe grill, which the S4 also got. The Chevrolet Corvette C6 and Porsche 911 997 are obvious future classics, but I think buyers will target cars produced later than 2004 due to known issues with early cars. The Corvette struggled with gearbox problems and the Porsche inherited the engine problems from the 996 – where a valve timing auxiliary shaft (IMS) bearing can cause problems.
Saab and Volvo
Saab 9-3 and 9-5 may gain popularity in the wake of previous models. Both the Saab 9-3 and 9-5 share a platform with, among others, the Opel Vectra and Fiat Croma mk2, which do not appear to be desirable vintage cars. Volvo's model program for 2004 does not give any special classic vibes. The Volvo S80, V70 and XC70 were not particularly beautiful. The Volvo S40/V50 came into production as new models in 2004, but will hardly gain any value as classics. The sister model, the C70 Cabriolet, on the other hand, is a 2004 model that may arouse interest as a vintage car. It is beautiful, rare - and Volvo.
Small sports cars
In 2004, you could buy the Toyota MR-2 and Smart Roadster as fairly affordable cars (Smart Roadster: NOK 200-294 and Toyota MR-000: NOK 2-310). They are simple, beautiful and smooth-driving with mid-mounted engines. As they have not gained a following, they may be in demand among people looking for fun 'old fashioned' petrol cars for hobby use.
Hidden gems?
Jaguar V8
Jaguars with a V8 engine were expensive cars in 2004 – from NOK 1 million – largely due to taxes. They can become attractive as vintage cars. When Jaguar introduced V8 engines in the 90s they had childhood ailments which were corrected before 2004.
Affordable sports cars
The Chrysler Crossfire and Mercedes-Benz SLK R170 are based on the same platform. They are cheap now, and it remains to be seen whether they will increase in value. The Mazda MX-5 has carried on the English roadster tradition and will be fine hobby cars. Mazda RX-8 with wankel engine was sold new in Norway. They are beautiful, but the wankel might be too weird to win demand. The Porsche Boxster 987 lives in the shadow of the Porsche 911, at least here at home. Further south in Europe, the Boxster and Cayman are more popular. The Cayman had not yet been launched in 2004.
Ordinary cars
Alfa Romeo, BMW 3 Series, Mini and Volkswagen Golf are popular cars even after they have become veterans. Will the 2004 models of Alfa and Volkswagen be as popular? I think special editions like the Alfa Romeo GT, BMW 3 Series Cabriolet, Mini Cooper Cabriolet and Volkswagen Golf GTI may still be worth looking after.
SUVs and MPVs
The Range Rover and Toyota Land Cruiser are worth mentioning because their predecessors are sought after as vintage cars. Will the Range Rover mk3 be as popular as the mk1, and will the Land Cruiser J100 be as popular as the J40? I would also like to mention the Renault Espace mk3. The Mk1 was one of the first MPVs on the market. The problem now is that MPVs are no longer as popular among new cars. Among MPVs, the Volkswagen T5 also belongs, especially with nice editions of the Multivan, Caravelle and camping editions.
Which 2004 models do you think will become future classics?
See
I remember well my first drive with the Opel Astra. It was a test drive of a new station wagon with a 1,6 liter engine. I liked the feeling of a solid car - a kind of security feeling. It seemed heavier than the Kadett (E) I had previously owned. The soundscape seemed harsh during acceleration, and the drivetrain sent vibrations into the cabin. Compared to the Kadett E and Nissan Sunny - which I drove at the time - the steering in the Astra seemed lifeless. Plus for power steering. My conclusion was that this was no vehicle for "keen drivers". Nevertheless, we ordered a black metallic Astra 1,6 sedan with the "Young" equipment package. It consisted of a manual sunroof, upgraded seat covers, green stripes and separate wheel covers. With a new house and a family increase on the way, space and safety became decisive. Besides, it was a very beautiful car. More beautiful than the Golf III. Like the Opel, I felt that the Volkswagen Golf III had become heavier, less dynamic and less fun to drive than its predecessor the Golf II. 
