No one knows what the future will be like. After all sun marks, it becomes chargeable. Therefore, there is currently a high demand for rechargeable cars. But in five years, it is not certain that your and my rechargeable car will be worth more than today's petrol and diesel cars.
- No one wants to buy ordinary cars anymore!
The statement came from one of my neighbors who wanted to renew his car park. Today, SUVs with diesel engines end up as shelf warmers in used car halls. Volkswagen has announced that they will no longer focus on diesel. Toyota intends to remove diesel engines from its passenger car program. Politicians all over the world have announced that city centers should be free of diesel cars.
Everyone wants rechargeable cars
Although electric cars sell well in Norway, they are still niche models on a global scale. They will continue to be so until they can be driven and "refueled" like ordinary cars. For tomorrow's electric cars, it is not the range applicable. It is charging time. Several car and battery manufacturers now claim to have cracked the code for shorter charging times. Toshiba claims they are able to charge 32 miles in 6 minutes. Those who produce batteries for new Fisker claim that it will be possible to charge 80 miles in 1 minute. Only when the charging time becomes as short as filling up with petrol will batteries take off as an energy source all over the world - not just in Norway.
Electric motors have properties that make them well suited for cars. They are simpler and cheaper to produce than piston engines. They require less volume and less cooling, and can thus be placed close to the wheels. With the electric motor's willingness to respond and torque from standstill, we can get cars with traction that surpasses anything we know today.
But in five years, your rechargeable car will be worth little
We have seen the development with mobile phones. Today, there is no market for five-year-old phones. They may be "as good" as when they were new, but simply have no value. The cars face a corresponding development. It's not just the battery packs that are getting better. New systems for driver assistance, safety and infotainment will completely change the driving experience. Your old car will not be scrapped because it is exhausted, but because the new ones are so much better.
The car industry is preparing for new times
The uncertainty of new technology means that more and more car customers are financing new cars through leasing instead of buying. More focus is expected on bruk than ownership. Imagine the consequences: As you take the elevator down into the garage, a new car starts by itself and rolls up in front of the door. It is not from car. It belongs to a car pool. Well, this may be a bit ahead in time, - but it will come. I do not know who the various players will be, but I do not rule out that we may meet companies such as More than, Google, Neighbor car, Spotify, Facebook, to mention a few. Retail chains Møller car is active in the new car sharing service HIRE. Ole Grangaard, general manager of Mobile states on their website that they have ambitions to be among the best in delivering mobility in an era of the sharing economy, digitization and automation. RøhneSelmer has started offering cars via Nabobil, to name a few.
Hybrid?
Hybrid with petrol/diesel and electricity will never be anything more than a transitional solution. Complicated, heavy and expensive. In Germany, the plug-in hybrid model Audi A3 e-tron Sport costs the same as the Audi A6 2,0 TDI 190. In Norway, the tax-reduced hybrid car is NOK 150 cheaper. The real price reflects the reason why the hybrid can never be a success outside Norway. In five years, today's hybrid cars will become a cost drain for their poor owners. Imagine when you have to change both the battery pack and timing belt at the same service visit.
Hydrogen for the heaviest?
In the context of vehicles, one can say that hydrogen is a way of storing electricity. An alternative to batteries. You need electricity to create hydrogen, and you get electricity back from the hydrogen. With expected battery technology, it is difficult to imagine any need to go "detour" via hydrogen. The only thing that can justify the use of hydrogen is profitability. Maybe hydrogen will be the fuel of the future for heavy, energy-demanding commercial vehicles? Along the axes for the number of KW and driving time, there is an intersection where the cost of changing battery packs exceeds any additional cost of getting the power from hydrogen instead of batteries.
What about petrol and diesel?
No worry! Construction machinery, garden tools, outboard motors and power generators will use fossil fuel for many years to come. There will still be a market for petrol and diesel engines, but they are unlikely to be placed in the latest, most innovative models - models which, for practical reasons, will be reserved for cars with new powertrains. If also all new systems that are supposed to revolutionize the driving experience are only delivered in cars with new powertrains, we can see that the trend for car design will split. You get new sleek lines adapted to new powertrains, and classic lines for traditional piston motorization. I imagine that the difference between these two design directions will fade like the Fisker Karma and the Volvo 240.
Therefore, your old diesel car can become more attractive on the used market than an old rechargeable car.
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